A probabilistic model for waiting time in achieving family planning goals
Main Article Content
Abstract
The family decision process is a complex phenomenon. At some point, a couple may decide to interfere with the childbirth process in some way. The result of this decision is a sudden event that limits family size and gender composition. An important consideration in a study dealing with the number of children families wish to have is whether these desires include preference as to the child's sex. The purpose of this paper is to propose five hypothetical rules that reflect the current preferences of parents regarding the size and gender composition of their children. Various combinations of marital durations, levels of fecundity, and rest periods (gestational period plus amenorrhea period) have been used to calculate the expected waiting time for each case to reach the desired family size. Additionally, for each case, an estimate of the truncation bias has been obtained. The lower limit of the range in each case is constructed by that value of the expected waiting time which corresponds to the pair of parameters andh = 0.92 years. The upper limit is the value of the expected waiting time derived by assuming and h = 1.25 years for an infinite duration of the marriage. As a result of this information, couples may be able to plan their families in such a way that all their financial and social obligations have been met by the time they plan to retire, which means that it will help make decisions about family planning at the micro level.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
References
1. Bhatnagar, R., Gupta, P., Bharti, A., & Gupta, B. R. (2025). Breastfeeding practices among institutionally delivered newborns: a single centre experience. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics, 43(2), e-43749. https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v43i2.749
2. Goodman, L. A. Some possible effects of birth control on the human sex ratio. Annals of Human Genetics, 25(1), 75-81 (1961). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1809.1961.tb01500.x
3. Gupta, P. D. A stochastic model of human reproduction: Some preliminary results. Theoretical population biology, 4(4), 466-490 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.host.2018.07.012
4. Krishnamoorthy, S. Effects of sex preference and mortality on family size. Demography India, 3(1), 120-132 (1974).
5. Maurya, R. ., Pratap Singh, B., Kumar Tiwari, A., & Singh, A. (2025). A Probabilistic Study of Duration of Post-partum Amenorrhoea in rural Uttar Pradesh. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics, 43(2), e-43739. https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v43i2.739
6. McDonald, J. Sex predetermination: Demographic effects. Mathematical Biosciences, 17(1-2), 137-146 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(73)90066-7
7. Mitra, S. Preferences regarding the sex of children and their effects on family size under varying conditions. Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B, 55-62 (1970).
8. Mode, C. J. Perspectives in stochastic models of human reproduction: A review and analysis. Theoretical Population Biology, 8(3), 247-291 (1975). https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(75)90045-3
9. Mode, C. J. Stochastic processes in demography and their computer implementation (Vol. 14). Springer Science & Business Media (2012). https://drm/011/978-3-642-35858-6
10. Pathak, K. B. On the distribution of the number of conceptions. Journal of Mathematical Society, 1, 41-46 (1968).
11. Pathak, K. B. 354. Note: On a Model for Studying Variation in the Family Size Under Different Sex Preferences. Biometrics, 589-595 (1973). PMID: 4793139
12. Pathak, K. B., & Saxena, P. C. On the time required for attaining the desired size and sex composition of the family. Canadian Studies in Population [ARCHIVES], 101-110 (1979). https://doi.org/10.25336/P66W4B
13. Saxena, P. C. Some observations on post-partum amenorrhea. In S.N. Singh (ed), Seminar Volume in Statistics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 91-102 (1966).
14. Sheps, M. C. Effects on family size and sex ratio of preferences regarding the sex of children. Population Studies, 17(1), 66-72 (1963). 10.1080/00324728.1963.10405753
15. Sheps, M. C., Menken, J. A., Ridley, J. C., &Lingner, J. W. Truncation effect in closed and open birth interval data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65(330), 678-693 (1970). 10.1080/01621459.1970.10481116
16. Singh, S. N. A chance mechanism of variation in number of births per couple. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 209-213 (1961).
17. Tiwari, A. K., & Saroj, C. (2025). The Cause and Trend of Contraceptive Discontinuation in India: A Comprehensive Analysis Employing a Multiple Decrement Model. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics, 43(1), e-43734. https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v43i1.734
18. Westoff, C. F., Potter Jr, R. G., &Sagi, P. C. Some estimates of the reliability of survey data on family planning. Population Studies, 15(1), 52-69 (1961). 10.1080/00324728.1975.10410190